More consequences of the Grand Exchange

The Grand Exchange is Great! Prices have yet to stabilize, but it has already helped me out. Jagex said they intended it to free up our time to do things we want to do, and they were right. The first morning the GE came out I logged in as I was getting ready to go to work, I quickly bought three things I needed for a clue scroll I'm doing, and offered a few things for sale to see how things work.

In the evening, I visited the GE again and made a few more transactions. My experience has been that it is easy to buy, but a little slower to sell. This indicates the market is overstuffed with goods. Things will settle down in a few days, of course.

I originally thought that people would sell stuff that they didn't use and which was just taking up space in their bank, but now I wonder if people will also sell stuff they DO use.

Let's say your bank is full and you want to go fighting using melee for a bit. You can go to the GE and sell your black dragonhide armor to free up some space for the booty you will soon earn fighting. Later on, when you want to range for a bit, you just go to the GE and buy some black dh armor again. The GE means that black dh will almost always be available and Jagex's price system means that you won't lose too much money by "storing" stuff in the GE for a while. Why store stuff in your bank when you can just go buy it anytime you want? The GE can be thought of as an infinitely large bank that costs a little money to use (providing you can actually sell your stuff).

The prices for anything which can be created by players will continue to go down. The price for common drops will also go down. People will sell this stuff as soon as they get it. What will they do with their money? - Buy rare items. The price of rare stuff will start to go up again.

What other consequences are there to the GE? As predicted, semi-rare items don't seem very rare any more. Want gilded magic robes? Well, just go buy some.

The GE will also erode Runescape clan communities. When I was a low level ranger I decided I wanted a snakeskin bandana, but I didn't have enough snake skins to make one. My clan came to my rescue and gave me a brand new bandana which I treasured. Similarly when I lost my Amulet of Accuracy, my clan helped me out, and a generous person gave me an Amulet of Accuracy which they no longer used. These sort of acts help build friendships and community - - and they will happen much less frequently now that the GE exists.
Want a bandana or an Amulet of Accuracy? -- Well, just go buy 'em.

Also, clan banks may no longer be necessary.


The GE might lead to the era of the specialist skiller.

Early in my ranger career, I used throwing knives almost exclusively. You can't buy knifes in archery shops so I had to work up my mining and smithing skills to make my own. But if I was starting out now-a-days I may not do that. I could just pocket the change I get from fighting and buy knives at the GE -- easy. I would become a fighting specialist and my mining and smithing skills would languish. Or maybe I'd just become a mining specialist and mine coal and buy knives, no need to work on smithing at all (except for a few quests).

With the GE, a character needs only ONE good way to make money. With money they can get whatever else they want. This means characters starting off now are much more likely to be specialists when it comes to skilling.

. . . but they might become generalist when it comes to killing. A lot of people play melee because it is easy and they don't want to waste time getting arrows or runes. Now that arrows and runes are easier to obtain, more people just might decide to work up their magic and ranger skills. We'll see.

~ ~ ~

A while back it was thought the RS economy had just too much gold floating around. Jagex introduced the Construction skill as a sort of sink you could pour money down. Soon Jagex will realize the RS economy now has the opposite problem: too much stuff. Jagex might start thinking about reducing monsters drops. They also might introduce more "consumable" items -- armor that wears out or swords that can break, for example.

No one can predict the future, but it's fun to try.

Prices in Runescape may soon go down

Sometimes I go to this cool rare bookstore near where I work. The place has more books than will fit on the shelves. You have to squeeze past large stacks of books that look like they would topple at the slightest touch. The place is run by a crusty old man who acts like customers are an inconvenience to his business. The guy hardly talks at all . . . until you get him going, then you can't get him to stop talking.

The place is like a time capsule (he writes receipts up by hand), so I just had to ask him if the internet had effect his business much. Oh boy, that got him talking! He told me the history of used and rare bookstores in the area, how many had closed their doors forever, how NO new ones had been successful in the last twelve years. All because of the internet. He considered himself lucky because he started using the net early and adjusted to new market conditions (he actually has a respectable computer back behind some more piles of books). The internet had caused prices for rare books to plummet.

"There's no more pent-up demand", he told me. He explained how, in the old days, people would hear about a rare book a few times and start to become curious about it. They would start looking for it at book stores but would not be able to find it. The harder the book was to find, the more the desire to have it would build. Then, one day, they would stumble across it in some dusty store. Overjoyed they would say "At last! I've been looking for this title for years!" At this point they would be willing to pay almost any price to possess the rare tome.

But now days the same customer can search on the internet when they first hear about the book. They can see that a dozen copies are available, and then decide if they really want it. They often decide they don't want the book.

Things have changed on the supply side as well. In the old days small estate sales would have a table of books in the corner somewhere. The same sort of neglected tables of books can be found when people clear out their attic and have garage sales. A few people would buy a couple titles but most of the books would go unnoticed. But now days all the books can be put up for sale on-line.

In short: the internet has reduced pent-up demand for rare books and increased the supply. The result was that the price for rares went down.

Ok, you say, but what does this have to do with Runescape?

Well Jagex has just announced a Grand Exchange, quote:
"Later in the month, we bring you the 'Grand Exchange'. This new building will be located in the north-west of Varrock and will house a huge new addition to the game: the ability to offer items to buy and sell across ALL servers and to ALL players! You might, for example, go to the Exchange and put a full Barrows set up for sale - then, playing Skullball in Canifis, you might get a message telling you that they have sold and that you can go to the nearest bank to receive payment! The Grand Exchange will allow you to spend more time on the things you enjoy, providing a less time-consuming alternative to selling your items on the Forums or amongst the crowds of Varrock Marketplace."

Almost everyone has a few items taking up space in their banks which they never use but are worth a decent amount of money. They intend to sell the items one day, but never seem to get around to it . . . too much bother. But with the Grand Exchange it will be easy to sell this stuff.

On the flip side, if you are interested in buying a whip (or what ever), but don't want to go to a merchant world, you can pop over to the Exchange and see what is available. Seeing that a couple are in stock you realize that you can pick one up anytime you want to. You decide you don't really need a whip right this second and decide to pick one up some other time.

Supplies will go up but pent-up demand will be less.
Prices will go down.

The RS merchants will scream and rant. "The RS economy is Ruined!!!, Worst update EVER", they'll say. But they will be wrong, like always.


--

When I asked the old guy in the book store how HIS business was going, he told me "Great! Better than ever!".
"But you just told me about all those places going out of business", I countered.
"Oh", he replied, "They didn't adjust".