Thursday, August 30, 2007

We're Number 2

Ahgh! I haven't posted here in over a month. I can't really call this a blog if I only post once a month . . . I better come up with something to say.

hmmm . . .
Oh, here is one thing I noticed that I have not seen people talk about much - the new graphics. When Jagex added clan chat they got rid of some of the "chrome" around the edges of the game to make more room for chat and stuff. They pushed things around just a little bit. At around the same time they also seemed to have silently made some fundamental changes to ALL graphics. The colors everywhere changed a little bit. They also improved seams: there used to be gaps or lines all over the place - they were usually black lines but they could be white or some overlapping color. Most those ugly seams are gone now. If you used to brew beer you probably noticed the vat always looked like it had a layer of broken ice on top because of all the lines. Well those lines are gone now. OK, cool, I guess. Looks better.

I don't remember hearing a lot of people complaining about the lines so why did Jagex spend the time (and money) to fix 'em? Do they have a bunch of engineers looking for something to do? How is Jagex, as a company, doing these days anyways?

Here is how they are doing: GREAT!

Here is the market share data:
(from MMOGdata charts - http://mmogdata.voig.com)

Word of Warcraft: 26.5%
Runescape: 23%
Guild Wars: 12%
Linage I + Linage II: 8%
All the other online fantasy MMRPGs get ittsy-bittsy crumbs.

RS is number 2 baby!
. . . and WoW is not that far ahead.

But wait there's more. Those are the numbers from June 2007. Go back six months earlier and WoW had over 40% of the market. WoW is shrinking but RS is still growing. Jagex has lots of $$$ to improve the game. Now that's nice. :)


Some of the numbers on the MMOGdata website don't make since. I think Jagex used to only report paid subscribers but now they report all subscribers. Jagex still gets money from free accounts through advertising, so I guess it's fair to clump them together. Poking around the site I'm reminded of something I noticed earlier which convinces me there will never be a game called "Runescape 3".

Look at this:


I copied these curves from the subscribers data for Lineage 1 and 2, but the same thing happened with Ultima and other games. Version 2 was never as popular as Version 1. Version 2 players are really old Version 1 players, there are not very many NEW players. If you are a company and your number of subscribers is going down, a major new version will NOT save your butt.

Jagex knows this and will continue to pursue change in the game through gradual evolution rather than major revolution. Two years from now people will be playing a Runescape that might look a lot different from what we have now, and have a lot more going on - but you will still be able to play the same characters you have now, and the game will NOT be called "Runescape 3".